Ilyas Ba-Yunus, Ph.D.

Professor of Sociology

The State University of New York

Cortland, NY

Western secular democratic polities and their subsidiary organizations in general tend to ignore religion in their official societal strategies. The churches and the temples in these countries, therefore, raise their own funds, devise their own programs and try to promote and keep track of their respective constituencies.

The problem that such policies pose for social researchers in general and demographers in particular is the unavailability of official data on the distribution of religious affiliations in the societal population. Especially if the society is or is fast becoming multireligious, the problem may become only more complex.

American population which for long was by and large used to only two major religions - Christianity and Judaism - seems to be experiencing not only a denominational explosion in traditional religions, but also a proliferation of religions until recently unknown to the American shores (Statistical Abstract,1995). Especially since the beginning of the "new immigration" starting in the middle of the 1960's, world religions such as Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism and Zoroastrianism just to name a few, have become quite conspicuous in the midst of this highly secular society. Indeed, the religious landscape of America would never be the same as it use to be just a few decades ago.

But how can we estimate dimensions of this fast changing phenomenon if the U.S. Census or some other equally resourceful agency does not assume this responsibility? Because there is no such program or strategy on the horizon so far, perhaps all of us are condemned to dwell on conjectures which often tend to blow wild to say the least. If not, some alternate strategy has to be devised.

Lately, of great interest to social scientists and to others as well, has been the emergence of Islam as being, perhaps, the fastest growing religion in America. Who are these Muslims; how many are they; where are they living; are they really growing fast in numbers, and why and how are they growing in numbers? These are a few questions which a number of researchers have addressed themselves to lately. We shall discuss their contributions in the following pages.

In its broadest outlines, main objectives of this project were the same i.e. to try to seek answers to the above questions by seeking methodological strategies which could be applied in the absence of any help from the census takers. In a more narrow sense, this report pertains to a pilot project initially proposed to be carried out in Chicagoland - the city of Chicago and its immediate suburbs - but which, as it was deemed feasible, was later expanded to cover the whole state of Illinois. This pilot project had dual purpose. It was aimed at a) finding the best method(s) to study the dynamics of Muslim population in U.S. (and possibly Canada) by b) trying to obtain demographic data on Muslims living in the state of Illinois.

Chicagoland and the state of Illinois were chosen for this project for two important reasons. First, judging from the number of mosques and the Islamic centers, Illinois seems to harbor one of the largest concentrations of the Muslim population in U.S. (Institute, 1994). Secondly, in Illinois more than anywhere else in this continent, Islam has been the religion not merely of heredity but also of choice. In Illinois, Islam has been the religion of Muslim immigrants and their children. As well it has had a great attraction for African Americans who starting with late Elijah Muhammad in 1930's and his successors (Lincoln, 1993) have shown an interest in Islam rarely found any where else in the Western world. In fact, as we shall see later, Chicago may be the only American city which has more Muslims of African American descent than of any other origin.

It may come as a big surprise to many that Islam was introduced to America, of all people by the slave traders, as early as the eighteenth century or, may be, even earlier. According to some estimates at least twelve to thirteen percent of the African slaves brought to North America were Muslims. Muslim names start appearing in slave documents as early as 1717 (Poston, 1992; Mehdi, 1978; Austin, 1984). It seems certain that according to recorded history, African slaves were the first Muslims to set their feet on this continent. Alex Haley's Roots (1976) is based on similar folklore among contemporary African Americans.

On the other hand, voluntary migration to North America seems to coincide with large scale migration to this continent in the 19th century. According to Haddad and Loomis (1987), a number of waves of Muslim migration to this continent started soon after the Civil War. Subsequent Muslim migratory waves seem to have coincided with the dislocations in Europe and the Middle East following the Turkish Balkan wars, World War I, the Great Depression and World War II. Most of these immigrants originated in the Arab Middle East, Turkey, Albania and what is now Bosnia-Herzegovina.

What has gone relatively unnoticed was the migration of a large number of farm laborers of the Punjabi origin who were imported to British Columbia in the middle of the 19th century. According to Alam (1968) by the beginning of the 20th century most of these laborers had already migrated south to settle in northern California's Stockton valley. A large number of these Punjabi farm workers were Muslims from what is now Pakistan. Descendants of these hard working Punjabi Muslims prospered over time and are still found in large numbers in and around Sacramento, Stockton and the Bay area where they work as middlemen, and hotel and inn keepers.

Lately, an episode of far reaching significance was initiated with an open immigration policy under Johnson administration in the 1960's as a consequence of which thousands of immigrants were allowed to enter U.S. (also Canada). Latest wave of Muslim immigration that we are experiencing presently, may be traced back to these very immigrants from the Third World countries allowed in North America in the late 1960's.

Growth of the Muslim population in North America in general and in U.S. in particular must not be attributed to net migration (immigration - emigration) alone. Two other factors, natural growth (birth - death) and net conversion (acceptance - rejection) have also played significant roles. First, because Muslim immigrants must have brought high fertility patterns characteristic of the technologically less developed societies; and also because their death rate must have fallen to the same level as that of the North American population in general, there are grounds to expect at least a mini population explosion among these new Muslim immigrants. Secondly, unlike any other religious group in U.S. and Canada, Muslims seem to be gaining not in insignificant numbers also through conversion to Islam mostly on the part of urban African Americans. Thus, in addition to the Muslim immigrants and their children, we also now have a growingly visible strain of the Muslims of indigenous American variety. Any demographic study of Muslims in U.S. must necessarily take into account, among others, the ethnic structure as well as these three factors of change i.e. net migration, natural increase and net conversion to Islam

Recently, Islamic Resource Institute published a directory of mosques and Muslim Organizations in North America (Institute, 1994). According to this directory, New York has 124 Islamic centers and other organizations, California has 116 and Illinois has 74, followed by New Jersey with 55 and Texas 30 Islamic Centers. If these numbers correspond with the numbers of Muslims residing in these states, then they reflect five states of largest Muslim concentrations in U.S. Should this be true, it is evident that most Muslims, like other new immigrants to this country throughout its history, prefer to live in and around large metropolitan areas. Further examination of the same directory shows large concentrations of Muslims in states with at least one large SMSA (Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area). Thus, among others, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Pennsylvania and Virginia seem to have large Muslim populations.

Additionally, Muslims now seem to be spilling over into relatively smaller towns in growing numbers. Utica, New York (pop: 50,000) had only ten Muslim families in 1970. According to the Islamic Center of the Mohawk Valley (Omar,1997), presently there are over two hundred Muslim families residing in the same area and their number is on an increase due to an influx of the Bosnian refugees. A quick check of the membership list of the Islamic Society of North America shows that Muslims in the capacities of medical doctors, engineers, college professors, accountants and small businessmen are now working and residing in even smaller towns such as Ames, Iowa; Carbondale, Illinois; Chapel Hill, North Carolina; Columbia, South Carolina; Cortland, New York; Fort Collins, Colorado; London, Ontario; Muncie, Indiana; Ponca City, Oklahoma and Winona, Minnesota just to name a few. This spilling over of the Muslim families from large urban centers into smaller towns shows not only the ease with which these new immigrants have begun to feel at home in strange and unforeseen places in North America. It also shows an across the board demand of the Muslim talent in this continent.

Muslim population especially in U.S. has been of great interest as well as concern for the media, politicians and religious leaders. Lately, there has also been a serge of similar interest among academicians and researchers.

However, because of absence of any official sources such as the census or any vital statistics, attempts at estimating the Muslim population have varied not only in the methodologies adopted but also in reliability and authenticity based primarily upon membership records, surveys and sometimes even conjectures. Consequently, reports of the Muslim population in U.S. vary from being under one million to quite a few millions. In 1987, Haddad and Loomis regarded 3 million as a more accurate figure. In the same year the Islamic Society of North America (ISNA), the largest organizations of Muslims in U.S. and Canada, gave the figure of 5 million (Ba-Yunus, 1987), but most Muslim community leaders that you spoke to these days regard 6 million or even eight million as being closer to reality. Because the method that we adopted for the study of Illinois rests at least partly on these, in this section, we shall have a closer look at these methodologies as well as their conclusions.

Efforts at scientific estimation of the Muslim population seem to have started in 1967 when the Muslim Students Association of U.S. and Canada (MSA), the immediate predecessor of ISNA, commissioned Ba-Yunus and El-Kholy to devise a plan for the census of Muslim households residing in U.S. and Canada. During the course of this project, it was discovered (Ba-Yunus, 1987) that the Federation of Islamic Associations in America (FIAA) had in 1959 requested its affiliated communities to enumerate their respective households. It is not clear as to how rigorous this survey was scientifically. This enumeration yielded a total of 187,000 households under the umbrella of the FIAA. Because of a strong possibility of underenumeration the figure was rounded off at 200,000. Multiplying this by a rough estimate of the then Muslim family size i.e. six, the FIAA arrived at an estimate in 1960 of the Muslim population at about 1,200,000 (Alam 1964). Considering that this study was deficient in many respects (African American Muslims, Muslims of Turkish and Eastern European descent, the Punjabi communities of the Stockton valley and Muslim students studying in and residing on college campuses were not included), the above estimate by the FIAA deserved serious upgrading which, however, was not possible at the time. In any case, assuming the same death rate for the Muslim population as that of the American population in general but with a much higher birth rate, it is estimated (Ba-Yunus and Siddiqui, 1994) that the Muslim population at the time was expanding at the rate of over two percent per year - a capacity to double itself in almost thirty years. It means that, the FIAA targeted population of 1960 had expanded close to a 2.5 million mark in 1990.

Recently, Weeks and Siddiqui (1992) presented a comprehensive summary of various efforts at measuring the extent of Muslim population. What follows in this section owes a great deal to their report. Their study goes back to 1980 when Harvard Encyclopedia of Ethnic Groups published an essay on Muslims (Phillip, 1960). According to Phillip there were between 200,000 and 300,000 Muslims in U.S. in 1980. This study suffers from some serious flaws. For example, it seems almost certain that reflecting the main concern of the Harvard Encyclopedia (increasing ethnic diversity in the American population ever since the "new immigration" starting in the 1960's ) Phillip only considered the newly immigrant Muslim population. He seems to have been ignorant of the FIAA's efforts at estimating the Muslim population as much as he also neglected to take into account the African Americans who were swelling the ranks of Islam in America especially after the demise in 1975 of Elijah Muhammad, the founder of the so-called Black Muslim movement. He also does not seem to have made any effort to estimate the number of Muslim students studying in American colleges at the time. It shows that even if it comes from Harvard, estimate of Muslim population in North America may have serious deficiencies in it. In fact, Phillip's essay betrays a more general malaise in American scholarship which seems two have been characteristically oblivious of Muslim writings on Islam and Muslims in this continent as well as elsewhere.

In 1981, Arif Ghayur put the number of the Muslim population at 1.2 million. Like Phillip, Ghayur also focussed mainly on the newly immigrant population from Muslim countries although to the above estimate he added 75,000 representing the number of African American Muslims. Indeed, his study is an improvement over that of Phillip, and yet it is replete with serious shortcomings. For instance, his estimate of the African American Muslim population is purely arbitrary and without any scientific basis. Moreover, there is a strong suspicion that many non-Muslims must have also migrated to U.S. from predominantly Muslim countries especially from the Arab Middle East (Haddad, 1990). Likewise, it may be pointed out that the Indian Muslims who are not the least conspicuous among Muslims in North America have, in fact, migrated from a predominantly non-Muslim country. Indeed, Ghayur's focus on predominantly Muslim countries as primary sources of Muslim migration to North America, ignores all other countries where Muslims reside as significant minorities such as China, South Africa, Ethiopia and the then Soviet Union. More significantly, Ghayur did not take into consideration the existence of the pre-1960 Muslim population. Assuming that the FIAA's targeted population did not experience substantial change during the intervening years, simple computations would show that it stood at 2 million mark in 1980. Add this to Ghayur's estimate, and we may conclude that the Muslim population in U.S. was not less than 3.2 million in 1981.

In 1984, Weeks replicated Ghayur and gave the figure of 1.5 million as of 1980 (Weeks and Siddiqui, 1992). Difference between the two is due to a larger figure of African American Muslim as used by Weeks. Evidently, this study also suffers from the same shortcomings as that of Ghayur. By adding the updated estimate of the FIAA targeted population, Weeks' estimate for 1984 may be revised upwards to 3.5 million.

In a conference on Muslims in America held in Spring of 1989 at the University of Massachusetts, Carol Stone presented a report on "Estimate of Muslims Living in America". The design of this research was aimed at discovering total numbers in 1980 of first and second generation Muslim immigrants. Thus, dividing the total number of immigrants from Muslim countries into the proportion of Muslim populations in these countries, she arrived at the 1980 estimate of 2.3 million Muslim immigrants in U.S. To this Stone arbitrarily added the figure of 1 million presumed to be the number of African American Muslims yielding a total of 3.3 million Muslims in U.S. in 1980 (Stone, 1991). As is evident, our revised version of Ghayur's estimate of 1981 and Stone's estimate of 1980 are almost identical. Then applying a crude birth rate of 16 per thousand per year and adding the number of new immigrants (by applying the same method as above), she concluded that there were 4.3 million Muslims in U.S. in 1986 (not too far from ISNA's estimate of 5 million in 1987).

Evidently Stones study suffers from the same flaw as that of Ghayur: she did not consider Muslim immigrants from the non-Muslim countries. However, estimation of the African American Muslim population remains greatest single most important challenge in the above studies. Thus, stone's estimate like those of others before her need serious upgrading. Moreover, one may ask, how realistic is Stone's use of the crude birth rate (16 per thousand per year)? Given the background of most Muslims in North America (Third World and lower socio-economic African American) one may be inclined to use a higher figure. If we apply the figure of 20 per thousand or 2% per year which is some what above the world average but quite below the growth rate of the Muslim world in general, then we shall have to revise our estimates upward. This is how ISNA arrived at a higher figure (5 million) than that of Stone (4.3 million) for 1987 (Ba-Yunus, 1987). In the light of the above discussion we may conclude that the Muslim population in U.S. could not be less than 9 million by the year 2,000 to say the least. Even this might be a conservative estimate because the growth rate of the Third world countries is on the whole higher than the world average; and as a whole Muslim countries lead the Third world in this respect.

Survey methodology is, perhaps, the best alternative to census in estimating religious populations. In U.S. such surveys go back to the 1950's or even earlier (Herberg, 1960). However, two major studies based on survey techniques which shed some light on the extent of the Muslim population, have yielded only inconsistent results. In 1989, Gallup Poll found that 4% of the national sample (aged 18 and over) listed their religion as other than Protestant, Catholic, Jew or none. Taking a clue from the 1991 United States Statistical Abstracts, namely, that Muslims may constitute roughly one half of those who responded their religious affiliation as being "other", Weeks and Siddiqui (1992) set the number of 1989 Muslim population at 4.94 million (compare this with ISNA's estimate of 5 million in 1987).

On the other hand, in 1991 Kosmin and his associates presented their findings of a survey on religious distribution in U.S. This survey also received wide publicity in the press (Goldman, 1991). Kosmin's survey was primarily aimed at estimating the Jewish population. But the way the survey was designed, it also yielded a rich crop of information on a great variety of other religions in U.S. Compared with the estimates of Stone, and Weeks and Siddiqui, findings of Kosmin's survey especially with regards to the Muslim population are a surprising contrast. For, according to Kosmin, in 1991 Muslim population in U.S. was not more than 1.4 million.

Because of this sharp contrast, others gave a second look at Kosmin's design and methodology. Weeks and Siddiqui (1992), for instance, point out that Kosmin's survey must have been flawed for a number of reasons most important of which being that many if not most of those who did not respond to Kosmin's telephone survey (113,000 out of the regional sample of 125,000), must have been Muslims. According to Weeks and Siddiqui, this is so because a large number of Muslims who are new immigrants probably living in the inner city neighborhoods and not being able to speak or even understand English (or Spanish which was also used in Kosmin's survey) quite well, would not always appreciate an anonymous caller at the other end of the wires. Indeed, Kosmin in his report (1991:2) shows a sensitivity to the immigrant bias in his survey. Likewise, according to Weeks and Siddiqui, new Muslims most of whom are African Americans living in the lower socio-economic areas, are less likely to respond readily to such surveys. Plausibly, those who are marginal to the " melting pot" do not always act like the ones who are 'melting in the pot'.

However, most damaging to Kosmin's findings is what even Weeks did not notice. Elsewhere Weeks (1994:213) pointed out that between 1961 and 1991 more than 15 million immigrants entered U.S. from all over the world. Because Muslim population of the world constitutes more than 20% of the world population, a case could be made that, on a one to one basis, the number of Muslim immigrants to U.S. during this period must have been in the neighborhood of 3 million if not higher. This, evidently, does not accord with Kosmin's findings with regards to Muslim population in America. Further, if we also add to it the above mentioned FIAA targeted population existing since before 1961, then the number of Muslims in U.S. could not have been less than 5.5 million in 1991.

As we have seen in the above, efforts to measure the size of Muslim population in U.S. vary in their sophistication from inadequate sampling (FIAA), mere conjectures (Phillip, 1980) and inadequate survey design (Kosmin, 191) to more involved techniques of gathering information (Stone, 1989). Consequently, these estimates have varied widely from a little over one million to five or even six million at the time of this writing (fall 1996). However, it must not escape notice that in general with growing sophistication, estimates of Muslim population also rose conspicuously.

Method we adopted in studying the Muslim population in Illinois grew from more simple design to more involved and time consuming techniques. For instance, noting that almost 55% of the population of Illinois (over 7 million out of a total of slightly over 11 million according to the 1990 census) live in the Chicagoland area comprising only of six counties (out of a total of 104 counties) in and around Chicago, it was assumed that the number of Muslims living outside of Chicagoland must be quite small and, therefore, relatively easier to count especially if one has some familiarity with various mosques or Islamic community organizations which generally maintain working rosters of most Muslim families (many of whom may not necessarily be bonafide members) in the adjoining territories. From the very outset, it was clear that what is true of the Islamic centers in the rest of the state could be true of the mosques and Islamic centers in Chicago and the adjoining counties where a large number of Muslims might not be fee paying members of the Islamic centers although a large number of names might appear in their correspondence lists. However. the problem in Chicago has been that of the magnitude. There may be only so many fee paying members but the roster of correspondence may be many times as large and the number of those only indirectly in touch with the mosque or the Islamic centers could be unknown. Then, there are small 'cells' - thirty three according to our count in 1994 - offering five times daily prayers including the weekly Jum'ah prayers on Fridays, but they do not have any lists of any members their expenses covered mostly through after prayer collections or through a few generous donations.

From the very outset, then, we had to discriminate between the Muslims in the Chicagoland area and those residing in the rest of the state. Overall strategies that we adopted are as follows.

Outside of Chicagoland, the method adopted was to obtain the lists of names maintained by the Islamic centers and compare these lists with the telephone directories. Additionally, a modified "snowball" method so useful in exploring little known smaller populations, was employed in order to locate households which did not appear on the Islamic center lists or in telephone directories: we proceeded by picking ten random names from each list and using them as 'informants' tried to update each list. All these data were fed in a computer terminal at East-West University in Chicago; and as it started showing redundancies, it was assumed that there were no more names left to be included.

On the other hand, method adopted for studying Muslim population of the Chicagoland area was much more involved. To start with, we began by familiarizing ourselves with the area under consideration with the help of five "informants" from five major Muslim ethnic groups living in the area ( Arab, South Asian, Turkish, Balkan and African American). Besides, a number of meetings or conference calls were held with these informants for developing tactical details from time to time.

For the purpose of our study we defined the area under consideration as comprising of Cook, DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will counties. Inside these six counties where more than 55% of the Illinoisans reside, there are numerous mosques, Islamic centers, Muslim community centers and schools whose functions often overlap with one another. Many of these mosques generally belonging to community organizations are still being added to the list of those already known (Center Finder, 1993). Likewise, individuals and households may have multiple membership in more than one organization. Several of these mosques function only as mosques (they are used only for the purpose of five daily prayers and/or the weekly Friday prayer). They do not invite people to become members and few of them maintain membership list which are only infrequently updated. Then, there are a number of mosques or centers which are dominated by single ethnic groups which were reluctant to provide their membership lists even to the Chicago Islamic Shura Council an umbrella organization with the membership open not to the individuals but only to the individual organizations.

Because of these and similar problems, quite early in the duration of this research it became evident that the Chicagoland mosques and community centers relatively more active as they were, in fact, offered much less help in this regard than those in the rest of the state.

Because mosque or Islamic center listings were deemed as being inadequate for our purposes, we also decided against the 'snowball' method which without these listings to start with, would have been time and resource consuming beyond our means in the large urban milieu of Chicago and its suburbs. Nonetheless, we decided in favor of picking Muslim names from 12 telephone directories (Area Codes 312 and 708) covering nearly all of the above mentioned six counties. In this regard, we had some problem with picking Muslim names of East European origin. The problem was only partly solved with the help of our Albanian and Bosnian informants although the problem of other east European names remained unsolved.

Most problematical for our purpose in the six counties area, however, proved to be the population of African American Muslims. We were informed that African Americans as a group are among the largest populations of Muslims in the Chicago area. We were also told that a very large number of new Muslims from this community who had changed their given names to Islamic names unofficially, had, in fact, not changed their names officially. Consequently, there was every possibility of missing a large number of them in the telephone directories. On top of that, the African American Muslim community is so large that it was impossible for us to make use of any informant(s) within our means. Nonetheless, we decided to record all Muslim sounding names which also have distinct ethnic flavor to them (especially South Asian, Arab, Turkish, Albanian, Bosnian and Iranian). Evidently, we could not pick all Muslim names from the directories. However, this record keeping, as we shall see later, proved to be of immense help to us in rechecking findings of our sample survey.

If, as it is claimed, African American Muslim population is one of the largest categories of Muslims in this area, it could not be ignored; and because telephone directories could not offer much help in this regard, we concluded that there was no alternative for us but to conduct a survey based on a random sample of all households in telephone listings; translate its Muslim ethnic proportions into absolute numbers, and then compare them with those picked directly from the telephone directories as mentioned above. This method, as we shall see later, gave us a handle on our estimation of the African American Muslim population.

Twelve telephone directories pertaining to the six counties area contain a total of about seven thousand pages listing 296 names per page on an average. A random sample (one in almost three hundred) was selected by picking one random name from each page yielding a sample size, N=6321 (names of businesses and other organizations were avoided). The questionnaire employed was brief asking only four questions with respect to ethnicity, religion, education and profession of the respondent. Originally, the question regarding income was included, but only thirty calls later it was eliminated because of respondent reluctance. The question of income was included later in 'in-depth' interviews as we shall see below. Before actual survey began, announcements were made regarding this survey after two Friday prayers in five major and fifteen smaller mosques hoping that the word of this survey wold spread even among those who did not come to the mosques on these days. Further, our informants posted printed announcement regarding this survey in Muslim grocery stores and restaurants in all major ethnic areas of Muslim residence.

Calls were made mostly from 4:30 p.m. to 10 p.m. during the week, from 10 a.m. to 12 noon on Saturdays and from 12 noon to 3 p.m. on Sundays. We had to reject 3037 (almost 50%) cases because of spurious, incomplete or no response at all. In the final analysis, then, the findings as given below pertain to 3284 responses to our telephone survey.

Lastly, a unified subsample was drawn from the data from the Islamic Centers in the state as well as from our Chicagoland sample. First, we drew a 2% random sample (N=600) from the household listings in the state of Illinois outside of Chicagoland. In the final analysis our sample from the state consisted only of 126 households which successfully completed our in-depth interviews. In Chicagoland 500 heads of the Muslim households had originally agreed for such interviews with us although in the end we were able to complete only 115 interviews. Thus, our sub-sample for in-depth interviews consisted of 241 households with a total population of 1180 (see Table. 5).

The main purpose of these in-depth interviews was to discover and verify patterns of ethnicity, family size, population structure, education, profession and income as well as patterns of religiosity growth factors including birth, death, migration and conversion. We also tried to explore marriage, divorce and consumption patterns. However, because of incomplete and often suspicious responses, these subjects were dropped from our analysis. Needless to say that complete anonymity was provided and maintained at the request of a number of Islamic centers as well as many individual heads of households.

As to the origin of Islam in Illinois, we are still in dark about it. There is no record, official or unofficial, that we could find regarding the very first Muslims who came to the state of Illinois or to the Chicagoland area. However, based on our in depth interviews, we could determine the presence of at least one hundred and twenty Muslim families living in the counties outside of the Chicagoland area. Of these, fifteen can be traced back to the first decade of this century and the rest of them could be traced back to 1920's through 1950's. Nearly all of them were concentrated in a radius of one hundred miles around Chicago metropolitan area.

Our interviews also show that there were sizeable number of Muslim families (around two hundred) living in the extreme south side of Chicago along the Indiana border as early as 1920's. Most of them were directly or indirectly related with the steal and other heavy industries centered along Gary-Hammond-Chicago axis. Their numbers and their growth could not be ascertained through our interviews. However, what is certain is that nearly all of these families originated in the Arab Middle East notably Syria, Lebanon and Jordan. Our interviews also revealed the existence of sizeable number of Turkish families who came to live on the "near West side" in the early 1920's (their estimates ranging from twenty to two hundred). Most probably these families came to live in greater Chicago area about the same time as the Arab Muslim families farther to the south and have had something to do with the aftermath of World War I. Slightly more skilled than their Arab counterparts, the Turks worked mainly as middlemen, tailors and garment workers some of whom also fanned out in the adjoining territories where they bought or leased lands to farm and raise cattle for dairy and meat (as Muslims they did not eat pork and only ate properly slaughtered or the Zabeha meat according to Islamic injunctions). We were also informed that the Albanian, Bosnian and other Eastern European Muslims (much smaller in number) were also present in the greater Chicago area by the late 1940's living slightly to the north of the Turkish immigrant community. We did not find any trace of any other immigrant Muslim group residing in or around Chicago along with these above mentioned Muslim groups.

However, by the late 1940's late Elijah Muhammad, the founder of the so-called Black Muslim movement in America had already migrated from Detroit and established himself in and around 36th street South, only a few blocks from the University of Chicago campus. This is the area which was destined to become the largest single district of the Muslim orthodoxy (Sunni) during 1970's although in his life time Elijah Muhammad, because of his claim to prophethood, was not recognized as Muslim by the main stream Muslim community of the world.

These four communities identifying as Muslims, established their own mosques or prayer halls as early as the late 1940's. Thus, there was a mosque on the 56th street South established by the Arab immigrants. A Turkish mosque was existing on North Glenn and an Albanian mosque was in service about the same time farther to the north on North Broadway. Most important in its activity, visibility and influence in the adjoining African American territory, however, has been Masjid Muhammad - the mosque built by late Elijah Muhammad.

Our interviews bring about the fact that until about the middle of the 1960's, Muslim population either in Chicago or in the rest of the state of Illinois, was utterly scant and hardly visible. For instance, in 1960 Masjid Fatir had only 70 household on its membership list. An old record of the Turkish mosque on the near West side shows a membership of only 40 households. Albanian and Bosnians do not have any accurate record going back to the 1940's or the 1950's. Masjid Muhammad which must have had its membership in at least a few hundreds lost all of its records in the subsequent infighting between and among different claimants to the mantle of Elijah Muhammad who died in 1975.

Whatever their earlier history, present structure of the Muslim population of Illinois seems to be the result of demographic processes mainly of more recent origin. Indeed, one could say that the second half of the 20th century has been awfully different from the first half with respect to the Muslim presence, its size and its variety in the state of Illinois in general and Chicagoland in particular.

Three major trend setting events occurred in Illinois as elsewhere in North America in the later half of the 20th century. First, beginning in early 1950's Muslim students in large numbers started coming to the U.S. (also Canada) for higher education. Few of these pioneers managed to get immigrant status in order to become citizens eventually. But their numbers grew in the late 1950's, and they became quite conspicuous on large Illinois campuses such as the University of Illinois at Urbana/Champaign, University of Chicago, Northwestern University at Evanston, Northern Illinois University at Dekalb and Southern Illinois University at Carbondale where they had already established their respective Muslim Students Association (MSA) chapters. They were the first ones to benefit from the new immigration rules introduced in the Johnson administration in 1965. These student immigrants, one might say, constitute the vanguard of the largest ever wave of Muslim immigration to America - a process which promises to continue well in the 21st century unless the immigration laws are changed drastically in the near future.

Secondly, toward the beginning of the 70's appeared the very first Muslim immigrants as sponsored by their brethren who having acquired the immigrant status before had already become citizens by the end of the 1960's. Although immigration rules as introduced in the 60's are already abolished or greatly modified, the tide of the sponsored immigrant Muslims has not abated yet. It constitutes a 'chain reaction' which proceeds in an inverse pyramidal progression. One person who becomes a citizen is able to sponsor a number of his near relatives each of whom having acquired his or her citizenship in a few years is able to create a new pyramid. Indeed, these are the sponsored ones who makeup almost the total bulk of the immigrant Muslims in Illinois presently.

Thirdly, Elijah Muhammad, founder of the Black Muslim movement in America died in 1975. Soon his movement was fragmented in two major blocks with a few splinters. One of these blocks is led by his son Warisuddin Muhammad which, as we shall soon see, larger but less vocal of the two, opted for the mainstream Sunni Islam. The other one as led by Minister Farrakhan Muhammad, relatively smaller in size but definitely more vocal and conspicuous, remained tied to the belief in the Divine mission of late Elijah Muhammad with a few modifications. These two groups along with a number of smaller 'Immamates' constitute a great majority of the African Americans who call and identify themselves as Muslims.

Briefly, then, the population of Illinois citizens who identify themselves as Muslims is divided in two major and easily identifiable categories - immigrant and indigenous. Of these immigrants have come from nearly all over the world. Indeed, one might say that, in their folkways and the mores, languages, marriage patterns, home attires and the food they eat, they represent the extent to which Islam spread in the world during the past fourteen hundred years. Indigenous Muslims, on the other hand, are almost exclusively of African American origin with very few European Americans who although not least conspicuous in Islamic activity in Illinois because of their knowledge and dedication to Islam, can be counted on fingers.

It may be interesting to note that in Chicagoland alone we found forty two different religions (Appendix.1). We suspect there may be more which were not disclosed especially by those who refused to answer our calls. It seems that almost one quarter (23.5%) of the people of Chicagoland are non-Christians among whom Islam constitutes the largest religious affiliation. This makes Islam the second largest religion in the Chicagoland area and presumably in Illinois as a whole. Among Christians, Catholics and Protestants are almost evenly divided (31% and 29% respectively).

As to our target population, we found that the total Muslim population of Illinois as a whole is no less than 320,744 or somewhat less than 3% of the total population of the state (Table.1). Of these, 35,618 (12.5%) were living outside of and 285,126 (87.5%) were estimated to be living in the six county Chicagoland area. This shows that Muslims of Illinois are somewhat more urban than the total population of Illinois 80% of which live in the Chicago six-county area. Table 2. gives the breakdown of our computation of the Muslim population of the Chicagoland area.

Table 1. Muslim Population of Illinois.

A= N. Households, B= N. in Households, C= N. Individuals

*Overlap with DeKalb.

Table 2. Estimation of Chicagoland Muslim Population

Sample Size N=3284

Muslims in the Sample N=128

%Muslims in the Sample 3.91

Population of Chicagoland 7,300,589

Muslim Population in Chicago 285,126

Mean Muslim household Size 4.9

Total Muslim Households in Chicago 58,189

Because we relied exclusively on the correspondence rosters of the Islamic centers outside of Chicago, our data lacks in information on the ethnic makeup of the Muslim population in the state of Illinois at large. Islamic centers in the state simply do not mention ethnicity. We could have collected this information in our in-depth interviews, but because of an instructional gap among our interviewers covering the state, we could not obtain this information with sufficient reliability. But, we were able to get this information with a great deal of accuracy for Chicagoland six county area.

*Percentages are rounded to the nearest whole.

As Table. 3 shows largest single ethnic block in Chicago is that of the indigenous Muslims who with few exceptions are of African American background. 46% or nearly one half of the sample, their total strength (131,158) far exceeds any other single ethnic category. Next are the Muslims of Arab origin and those from South Asia (Urdu speakers) who are almost neck to neck in size (20% and 19 % respectively). These three constitute largest categories of Muslims in Chicago. They are followed by those of Turkish background (7%) and the East Europeans who are overwhelmingly of Albanian and Bosnian origin with few of Bulgar and Romanian background. Lastly is a mixed category composed of Muslims of Hispanic origin and those from Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Somalia and Sri Lanka. There are many others such as the Afghans, the Nigerians, and those of the American Indian origin some of whom we know but who escaped our sample net.

At this juncture we were able to partially recheck our findings especially with respect to ethnic distribution of Muslims in Chicago area. In comparing our findings based on the sample survey with those picked directly from the telephone directories, we found close correspondence between the two. Considering that the mean Muslim household size in Chicago is 4.9 (Table.2), we could translate information in Table.3 as given in Table.4.

It can be seen from this table that the numbers of four major ethnic categories which were picked up from the telephone directories and other sources, are within range of only a few hundreds of those derived from our sample. This speaks of the reliability of our survey. Thus, although it was not possible for us to pick any names of the Muslims of African American background from telephone directories, on the basis of our survey findings we can say with a great deal of confidence that their number is no less than 131,158 or 46% of the total Muslim population in Chicagoland.

Findings in this section are pertaining to our in-depth interviews involving 241 heads of the Muslim households out of which, as mentioned earlier, 126 were living in the state outside of the Chicago area and 115 were residents of Chicagoland. Although as mentioned above our list of objectives in conducting in-depth interviews was much larger, we received more reliable information through this method only on household size, age-sex distribution, household income, sectarian differences, religiosity and the growth patterns.

We found that the combined mean household size for in and outside of Chicago area could be easily rounded at 4.9. Although several indigenous Muslim families were much larger in size due to high birth rate, several immigrant families were also large due mainly to the fact that often they tend to be extended - in a number of them (79 or almost 33%) more than two generations as well as siblings are living under the same roof.

As Table 5. shows we were able to receive reliable information as pertaining to only four age categories ( 5 and under, 6-15, 16-65, and 66 and over) for both sexes in the households.

*Percentages rounded to the nearest whole.

In our sample we found that the oldest Muslim in Illinois, an Albanian great grand mother, was 81 years of age. Further computations based on these data show that the over all sex ratio of Muslims in Illinois is 132 (one hundred and thirty two males for every one hundred females) which is far higher than the American average of 105, but which definitely shows the recent immigrant character of this population as a whole.

Also, our computations based on the information in Table 6. show that the overall dependency ratio of Muslims in Illinois is close to .3 which means that each person in the working age among Muslims in Illinois has to support one third of a person as his or her dependent - a ratio which is substantially lower than that of the U.S. which stands close to .5, but again this must be due to the overwhelmingly newly immigrant status of this population.

Further extrapolations show that proportions in Table. 6 yield the information in Table.7 for the state of Illinois as a whole:

Table. 6. Age-Sex Distribution in Illinois

*Percentages are rounded to the nearest whole.

Table. 6 shows that the adult Muslim population in Illinois in 1994 was approaching 270,000. Given a very low death rate in this population (see Table.10 below), the Muslim adults in Illinois may be at an arms length of 300,000 in the year 2,000.

Muslims of Illinois are an educated population by American standards. Our telephone survey shows that the overall median number of years of schooling completed among heads of the households (male or female) is 14.5 years. Further, education within the families seems to be on the rise as reflected by the fact that almost all (97%) aged six and over in the families subjected to in-depth interviews were in schools or alternative schools. Nearly all of these households (98%) had at least one full time or part time college student. Six or slightly more than 5% of the households had children who had been high school valedictorians. About twice as many (11) had been salutatorians or among top ten students in their class.

Table 7. Distribution of Professions

*Includes full time doctors, Residents, Interns, New or Foreign Medical Graduates preparing for the USMLE.

Table 7. shows that professionally Muslims of Illinois are a versatile population. Most favored profession in order of ranking are those related with medicine; finance and banking as well as accountancy, insurance and computer science; and different fields of engineering - professions that require extended periods of education and training. Proportionately almost equal to each of these categories are also college students (for instance, the number of full time college students almost equals the number of professional engineers). Among them, these categories include almost 30% of the total professional population. What really stands out is the number of part time college students who are also working part time or as apprentices (in automotives, chemicals, electronics, etc.). This is the largest single category which constitutes almost 20% of the sample. This category consists not only of young men and women but also their parents (in some cases both parents) in our sample. There are very few people in businesses of their own. So are the university professors. A newly emerging category is that of the Imam or the Qur'an teacher with some in tourism and taxi driving. An overall picture that emerges from this study is that as a whole Muslims of Illinois are an employment seeking professional population with highly specialized education and training. They have yet to venture in large scale successful businesses of their own.

We found that the median yearly income of the typical Muslim household in the state of Illinois is slightly higher than $50,000 (Table. 8). This would put them in the higher reaches of the middle socio-economic class. But, considering their average family size (4.9), their per capita consumption level may be somewhat lower than that. For example, the ethnic breakdown of income shows that the Arab family income far exceeds any other (almost $69,000), followed by the Turks, the Albanians, and the South Asians with the indigenous (mostly African Americans)

Muslim family earning the least (32,000).However, the impact of the family size shows that the highest per capita income or consumption potential in the family is among the Albanians followed by the Turks and then the Arabs. In this respect, South Asians are a distant fourth with the indigenous family being at the bottom of the list.

*Rounded to the nearest whole.

Fourthly, we found that in the sample 5% (N=48) were of Shia persuasion amounting to a little more than 16,000 in the total Muslim population. Also, there were about 2% (N=5) those of Ahmedi persuasion amounting to slightly above 6,000 in the total. There has been a great deal of confusion in our in-depth interviews with respect to those belonging to the Nation of Islam. In the end we could only conform 34 or just about 10% in our sample who firmly identified themselves as being the followers of Minister Farrakhan Muhammad or the Nation of Islam. We suspect that their actual number may be somewhat higher than this. This amounts to a little more than 32,000 in the total Muslim population of Illinois. Rest of them we found to be of Sunni persuasion. This means that among African American Muslims, those belonging to the orthodox Sunni religion may be around three times as many as the followers of the Nation of Islam.

In our in-depth interviews, we could discover only four major dimensions of Islamic religiosity - regular observance of a) five daily prayers b) Jum'ah prayers on Friday c) Eid prayers, and d) fasting in the month of Ramadhan. Table. 9 summarizes this information.

Table 9. Dimensions of Religious Observance

*Percentages are rounded to the nearest whole

Of the above, we found that most children and women regularly participate only in Eid prayers which are held twice every year and draw upon large number of Muslim families. Percentages for this category, therefore, are based on the total population in our subsample i.e. 1180 (Table. 5). In the other two prayers and fasting most women and children are only irregularly involved. Percentages for these categories, therefore, were based on the numbers only of the male population aged 16 and over in Table 5.

Evidently, Muslims of Illinois seem to be least observant of the single most important (and the easiest) duty i.e. five daily prayers although fasting, perhaps the most difficult to practice while living and working in the American society, is observed by almost half of the eligible population. Relatively more people are involved in Jum'ah congregation on Fridays. Still such a scant attendance of the Jum'ah prayer (about ten percent) is, according to our respondents, due to three major reasons. First, many if not all adults can not get away from their work on Fridays which is a working day. Secondly, most if not all women do not leave home to go to the mosque because Jum'ah prayer is not mandatory on women. Thirdly, a number of men aged 16-18 are still in schools attending classes on Fridays. Hence, a small fraction of the total eligible population attending Jum'ah congregation.

Demographically, a significance of these findings is that at least in near future a count of all those attending the Jum'ah congregation in Illinois would give us a good estimate of the total Muslim population in the state aged 16 and over; and a total count of all those attending Eid prayers would give us a good estimate of the total Muslim population in the state of Illinois. For instance, the total count of those attending Jum'ah prayers multiplied by ten would give us an estimate of the total Muslim population aged 16 and above; and a total count of all those attending Eid prayers multiplied by two would give us a handle on the total Muslim population of Illinois in that year.

We also found that five years prior to our survey in 1990 (Table. 10) total household population in our sample was only 995. It grew to 1180 with an overall compound rate of 4.3% per year promising to double itself in just about 16 years. Because we found that this rate of growth owes mostly to immigration from overseas (Table.9), it might not continue very long if the immigration policy of U.S. changes in due course of time. However, we suspect that there is a huge backlog of approved visa applications on the part of the prospective immigrants to the U.S. from nearly all countries of the world including the Muslim countries. In view of this fact alone, we may confidently predict that the Muslim population of Illinois would be in the neighborhood of 700,000 before the end of the first decade in the 21st century.

Over all Growth 185 4.3%

Doubling Time 16.28 Years.

*Percentages are rounded to the nearest whole

Further breakdown of the same information shows (Table.11) that the largest contributor to the growth of the Muslim population in Illinois during five years prior to our survey has been net migration (immigration-emigration) with 44%. Second largest contribution came from natural growth (birth- death) with 31%. Net conversion (acceptance- rejection) has been a distant third with 25%.

Not only this, Table 11. also shows what we may call a very high degree of 'religious mobility' in our sample population. As the table shows 25% of the growth of the Muslim population in Illinois during the five years prior to the survey may be attributed to net conversion which is not insubstantial. However, a closer look shows that compared to a total of 122 in our sample who had accepted Islam as their religion during this period, 76 or close to 41% had rejected it. This shows that the initial impact of Islam upon non-Muslims exposed to Islam in Illinois may be far greater than their will to continue as Muslims in future.

*NG = Natural Growth (birth-death);

NM = Net Migration (Immigration-emigration)

NC = Net Conversion (acceptance-rejection)

This survey aimed at estimating the Muslim population of Illinois has been the very first of its kind in North America. Although previously there have been several efforts to estimate the Muslim population in the U.S. as a whole, none of them can be compared to this study in data generation. This has been a comprehensive demographic survey: we were able to estimate not only the size but also the structure, socio-economic composition as well as the dynamics of growth of this population.

True there have been methodological pitfalls. The original design resting almost totally on picking Muslim names from the telephone directories especially in the Chicagoland area had to be set aside in the very early stages. Even so this information could later be utilized in order to judge the extent of the sampling error and thus the reliability of this survey. Also our in-depth interview sample was much smaller than our expectations. This was partly due to occasional unreliable and conflicting responses on the part of some of our respondents. Partly it was due to the fact that it took us almost two years to finish all the interviews - a time period during which we lost substantial number of those who had originally agreed to be interviewed.

Moreover, it seems that there is no suitable time for a survey telephone call unless one is ready to extend the survey period extensively. We lost substantial number of cases in our original sample simply because either people were not home, they had just returned from work, they were still in bed in the 'morning' over the weekends; or, they were simply too busy to talk to us. Lastly, we found that large number of Americans do not appreciate being asked about their religious affiliations. These are a few difficulties that we faced in our survey and they undoubtedly must have had distorting effect on our findings in varying degrees.

Despite these shortcomings we have been able to discover some discernible demographic patterns of Muslims of Illinois that can not be ignored. Numbers of different Muslim ethnic households that we picked from the telephone directories and their estimation from our sample are in close proximity with one another. Hence, we are quite confident about our survey findings that the Muslim population of Illinois was in 1994 no less than 320,744. out of these 285,126 or close to 87.5% were living in Chicagoland area while others were living in the rest of the state. In fact, if as Weekes and Siddiqui (1992) pointed out Muslim Americans more than others do not appreciate an anonymous voice on the other side of the wire asking about their religion, a case could be made that our survey, in all probability, misses the target by a few thousand households. Should this be the case then a claim of 350,000 Muslims residing in Illinois may not be too far fetched.

Also, contrary to what one might imagine, we found that the indigenous (overwhelmingly African Americans) and not the immigrant Muslims constitute the relative majority (46%) among Muslims of Illinois. Further, we found that the followers of minister Farrakhan Muhammad despite their being so active and vocal, in fact, constitute a substantial minority among those who identify themselves as Muslims.

Muslims of Illinois are ethnically a diverse population. Yet as a whole we found that the average Muslim resident of Illinois is more educated and economically more prosperous than the average American.

Notably, our survey also seems to have some predictive potential. For instance, a count of all those attending Jum'ah prayer on a given Friday multiplied by ten would give us an estimate of the total adult (16 and over) male population; and a total count of those attending Eid prayers multiplied by two would give us a good estimate of the total population of all Muslims residing in Illinois during that year.

Lastly, we found that the Muslims of Illinois are a fast growing population. If it continues to grow with the present rate (4.3%), it would double itself in just about 16 years. Although indigenous Muslims constitute a relative majority, immigrant Muslims as a whole constitute an absolute majority (56%) and their rate of growth is substantial. Of all factors of growth 44% are added every year due to net migration followed by natural growth (31%). Only about 25% of the total growth is due to net conversion to Islam which is quite substantial.

The overall picture that this survey portrays, then, is that the Muslim population in Illinois is substantial, ethnically diversified, economically quite well off, educated and moderately observant of Islamic prayers. When it comes to worship, it prefers collective prayers over those at home. It seems to be quite oblivious of the easiest five times daily prayers, but it is highly observant of perhaps most difficult to practice duty i.e., fasting in the month of Ramadhan. Muslims in Illinois are a very fast growing religious affiliation. If the present trend of growth continues, in just about a decade in the next century there would be more than six hundred thousand Muslims living in Illinois. And, if the immigration laws do not change drastically for only a few more years, all things being equal, there would be almost one million Muslims living in Illinois before too long afterwards, most of them concentrated in the Chicagoland area.

Finally, it may be pointed out that for studying religious populations in general and Muslims in this continent in particular, standard sociological surveys may not be enough. They might as well present shortcomings which could not be managed later on. Survey findings must always be checked as we did in this project although admittedly we did not do so by design. Picking Muslim names from the telephone directories may be of great help provided you have great familiarity with such names. Even so, as our survey shows even this practice may have its own limitations.

Also, it may be pointed out that there is no alternative to interviews, most preferably face to face, when it comes to the dynamic aspects of the population not covered by state agencies. It was mainly through such interviews that we were able to estimate the growth rate as well as factors of growth in the Muslim population of Illinois. Only, it is almost a requirement that you as an interviewer must have or quickly develop a close rapport with your subjects.

In the end it may be pointed out that the relative vigor of the method adopted in this research could be tested only by doing similar researches elsewhere in this continent. In fact, in view of the fact that most Muslims, especially the immigrants, live in large metropolitan areas, similar surveys covering these cities individually may yield a better picture of the Muslim population as compared to, say, a survey based on a national sample which as we discussed in the above has several unforeseen pitfalls.

Appendix 1. In Sample Distribution of Religions in Chicagoland

*Percentages are rounded to the nearest whole.

+ Five largest Protestant denominations in order of size are: Methodist, Baptist, Lutheran, Presbyterian and Episcopalian. Other smaller groups include Anglican, Assembly of God, Brethren, Charismatic, Christian Reform, Christian Science, Church of Christ, Church of God, Church of Holy Covenant, Disciples of Christ, Quaker, Seventh Day Adventist, Southern Baptist and Wesleyan.

# Includes Druze, Jainism, Satanism, Shinto and Sikhism.

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