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MECHANICS  OF  HISTORY  -  laws to understand the histtory

Introduction

I strongly advise you to read this material in sequence, page-by-page, because I will introduce some concepts gradually. First simple definitions, then in World History Rewritten section, more exact explanations, substantations and examples. History Mechanics is extremly comprehensive, so I will start from easiest problems and then gradually go to more complicated. Moreover I sometimes have to present only half-true intermediary explanations (“lies for children” using terminology of Ian Stewart and Jack Cohen) at first, and correct them later to make this lecture more user-friendly. Read and enjoy.

History processes are driven mostly by economic factors

To be more precise: economy is not the only power that drives history, but economic factors are the most important in macroscale, and in long run. Good analogy could be the gravity in physics. Gravity does not explain every physical process but is the easiest factor to eliminate, observe, and examine. That doesn't mean that people behaviors are driven ONLY by economy. Often people acts according to ideologies they believe or motivated by some other reasons. Rationality of social behaviors is a statistical rationality like in biological evolution. Moreover, actions of people, parties, countries and other players ALWAYS depends on available resources, and economics concrentrate on the problem of limited resources.

Exceptions

Of course, there are "critical points" (or history turning points) when two or more opposite processes acts against each other. These times other, weaker factors like ideologies, institutions, personal decisions of a single man (or even a casual nexus of coincidences) could prevail. The set of laws presented here helps to locate that critical points, and lets us ignore events that are not important.

Institutions, and ideologies evolve according to economic factors

It is easy to predict emergency of a new ideology or institution (and its "shape" or "economic core") if we understand an economic process  running in the background..

And vice versa, knowing the economic background of particular ideology we can say what economic processes are working behind the scenes simply by observing ideologies, and changes in ideologies.

Of course, we must remember about the historical background of a country where the ideology evolves. When there is a time (economic need)  for an ideology that promotes an religious dictatorship in Islamic country, its obvious that we should expect Muslim religious dictatorship, and not for example Buddhism religious dictatorship.

When a few ideologies compete with each other, the winner will be the ideology that is the cheapest to promote (and is convergent with community economic needs).

History laws are universal, and works in every country, every culture, and every human community

All "cardinal" differences between cultures are more an effect of poor knowledge about history of Non-European countries (forgetting about Muhammad al-Khwarizmi), and a very poor knowledge about European history (forgetting about Savonarola). Some times that "differences" are simply an effect of interpreting temporary historical process as an immanent element of Non-European culture.

Laws presented here will be true everywhere the second law of thermodynamics is true.

All laws presented here should work everywhere, where the second law of the thermodynamics (simply speaking: entropy always grows) works. There are many low-level laws that rules systems (saying "system" I mean every complicated being: living beings, species, institutions, technology, computer programs, etc.) evolution in competitive environment. I will not present all of them here. Except a few most important:

  • The more complicated system is, the faster it evolves, and faster reaches a next levels of complication.
  • More complicated systems that evolved in competitive environment, are (usually) more effective.
  • Systems evolve faster, when competition is stronger (but not too strong).
  • The more numerous is the population, the more predictable is its behavior.
  • The more complicated is the system, the more rationale (predictable) it acts, and works.
Stylistic corrections, December 2005
Slawomir Dzieniszewski


Main Page Table of Contents Contact with Author Rules of Quotation Theory Chronology Printable Version
MECHANICS  OF  HISTORY  -  laws to understand the histtory